As we might guess, prediction of financial success of a movie is arguably the most important piece of information needed by decision makers in the motion picture industry.
Any information about the critical factors affecting success of a movie would be of great use in planning the future films and related decisions about the movie industry where the results of managerial decisions are measured in millions of dollars,
3 OSU Professors, in 2007, realizing the need for a tool that will help movie industry decision makers, have come up with a web-based tool which predicts how much roughly a film will do in the marketplace, before it goes to box-office.The tool is designed and developed to take full advantage of the latest technologies in Internet and in DSS.
They built 4 types of models, namely Neural Networks, Decision Trees, Ordinal Logistic Regression and Discriminant analysis.They have also used an information fusion meta-model that combines the output of these three models.
Considering the the dependent variable in the study as the box-office gross revenues, they included several potential important factors (independent variables ) into the models.
The results that the tool provides are fairly promising for the Hollywood Film Makers.
It might also be a strong inspiration point for people working for other industries where a lot of predictions have to be made.....
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167923605001053
My project is about the same. We want to predict movie box office by some variables. Although we use some other variables and methods that they didn't use, the idea behind their research is still very interesting. We also consider if the actors, cinematographer, and directors who have won academy awards affect the box office. For the future study, it will be benefit to consider more variables into the model.
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