I recently read an article questioning if ESPN is actually ready to embrace big data analytics. ESPN hosted MIT's Sloan Sports Analytics Conference. Although they hosted the event it was clear to everyone that they were there just for show. Just to let sports "nerds" think that they care about analytics.
The underlying issue here is that ESPN and sports scouts in general have a culture problem. They either do not trust the statistics/calculations or believe human judgement will always prevail. ESPN's analytics specialist Alok Pattani put it best, "There's this inherent idea with say, a stat like quarterback rating where they think they can watch the quarterback themselves and assess how good he is. You really have to overcome biases."
This all leads me to believe that sports media giant ESPN seems to be overlooking a valuable sports analytics market opening the door for sport statistic enthusiasts. Do you agree that human judgement is the only sure way to project success? Or do you believe that numbers never lie? I would like to think that statistics are a true example of on field success. You decide for yourself.
http://www.adweek.com/news/technology/espn-ready-embrace-big-data-147748
John,
ReplyDeleteInteresting. I believe an important question is whether you are measuring (can measure) the right thing. For example, ESPN came-up with this total QBR metric to try to better capture what a QB does.
The question then becomes if A QB threw a perfect pass to a WR who dropped it. How would you account for that? (I do not know what they are currently doing for this). You can think about other examples as well.
One of the big differences between different scouts is their ability to weigh different parameters that can lead to future success. For example, if we stick to football and consider the rating of different quarterbacks in the NFL. What does the rating measure?
1- QB's ability
2- QB's team
3- QB's perceived value to his team
4- QB's clutch-ness
5- QB's value above replacement
6- QB's fantasy value
7- etc
Depending on how you will measure and weigh each of these factors, the answer might be different?
I personally believe that numbers do not lie, but your choice of numbers might totally change the argument.
For example, if you ask the question:
Is Mike Vick a good (top 16) QB in the NFL?
What stats and numbers will you use to answer this question? Obviously, he had a not so great first half of the season last year, but you can refer to 2011 when he was lights out.
In conclusion, if you are a scout. You only value the process that you use to make decisions. The question then becomes is that perspective the absolute truth or how far can the different metrics/perspectives take you.
Hope that makes sense.
Fadel
human value judgement (subjective) and facts (objective), which can be whether quantitative OR qualitative, cab be integrated through multicriteria decision analysis!
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