If you
are from Alabama you are well aware of the extreme weather we can have this
time of year. In North Alabama there may be snow one day and 70 to 80 degree
weather within a couple days. This extreme change in temperature can lead to
some very dangerous storms. There has been a dramatic increase in tornados in
the state of Alabama over the last few years that have produced some
interesting developments in how meteorologists are predicting storms. Obviously
we can’t stop the tornado from happening but if we can warn people better that
the storms are coming, then many lives will be saved.
The tornados of April 27, 2011
affected the majority of the state in some way or another and have produced
advancements in storm prediction and preparedness. This is where big data has
its role. Researchers have been modeling different scenarios to see what makes
some storms so severe. This generates huge amounts of data that must be
analyzed for patterns in order to discover the key situations to look for in
predicting the weather. According to Amy McGovern, scientist at the University
of Oklahoma, “Data mining is finding patterns in very large datasets. Humans do
really, really well at finding patterns in small datasets but fail miserably
when the datasets get as large as we’re talking about.”
These scientists are analyzing
real data collected from storm chasers as well as data collected from computer
generated storms. Using both types of data allows the scientist to check their
models for correctness. Using this analysis scientists are trying to predict
how bad a storm will be before there are clouds in the sky. According to Kelvin
Droegemeier, professor of meteorology and vice president of research at the
University of Oklahoma, “It’s a game-changer, complete game-changer. Radar
leads off basically with detecting something that’s already present; the
numerical model gives us the opportunity to actually project it and predict if
far in advance.”
If we reach the ability to
predict these storms as well as these scientists are planning then little to no
loss due to storms could be possible in the future. Property can be replaced
but people cannot. Preventing the
fatalities caused by tornadoes would be a huge advancement in weather research.
If scientists manage to predict
storms before there are clouds in the sky there will be a different human
factor to confront. Just think how difficult it will be to make people believe
a tornado warning when the sun is shining. That is another topic that goes much
deeper than this blog is intended to go so I will leave that for someone else.
If you would like to read more check out some of the links below.
Improving
Our Ability to Predict Tornadoes
Data
Analysis: Tracking Tornadoes, Terrorists and Bombs
Researcher
Uses Multiple Methods to Predict Tornadoes Earlier
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