Big Data and Politics

Using Statistical Analysis in Politics

Last year's election was the first time in my life that I was familiar, or educated, in statistics during a political storm. In Dr. Megahead's Quality Control class, he asked our class to find a poll that was famous for failing. Polls failed for a number of reasons whether it be the sample population, biased questions, or merely just a lack of understanding when it came to sampling in general. After taking Big Data this semester, it's apparent that the power of data mining is a tool that could prove to be extremely useful in predicting election outcomes. I found an interview with author and journalist Sasha Issenberg who describes how data mining is emerging is political analytics.

Issenberg explains that there is a plethora of information on each individual. First, looking at registered voters. Your age, gender, in some states race, as well as location are immediately available to analysts. Take into consideration now the various organizations that may have approached you. That data is also made available, so if you turned down a supporter of the NRA who knocks on your door, somewhere the NRA has this information stored. Issenberg illustrates how data mining in politics works, citing the predictive models of credit stores. Based on past behaviors, how will you behave in the future? Looking at your ability to pay off a loan, or default, whether you charge to a credit card or pay cash, are all indicators of your financial behaviors and earn you a credit score. This concept directly translates to politics. 

Though Issenberg states that analysts do not know much more about what makes voters change their minds, there is more information available to indicate what motivates and individual to cast a ballot. Behavioral psychology has helped to provide this information. In an interesting experiment (read the full description in the article because it is funny), analysts determined that people are considered with their social identities during election times. Issenberg discusses the initial elections occurring in the 21st century, which she credits with the evolution of predictive analytics in the political arena. Below is the link to her video interview and also a transcript of the interview.

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/politics/july-dec12/victorylab_09-14.html